OPINION: Macron is not staging a ‘coup’, nor is he ‘stealing’ the French elections

French President Emmanuel Macron is not denying the results of the snap parliamentary elections as many opponents allege, writes John Lichfield. He is trying to find his way out of an impossible situation, albeit one of his own making.

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Global social media has been beset for several days by a flash-flood of experts on French politics.
President Emmanuel Macron has, we are told, staged a “coup”. He has “stolen” an election. He has refused to recognise the “victory” of the Left.
He has dismissed the legitimate claim to be Prime Minister of an obscure Paris town hall official. He has refused to recognise that the Left has a constitutional “right” to govern because it has more seats than any other bloc in the National Assembly.
Is any of this true? No.

There is something rather touching (and suspicious) about this sudden interest in French politics on American and British X (ex-Twitter). Some of those claiming a “coup” are the usual suspects from the simplistic wing of the Left. Others are people who seem previously to have been interested in defending Russia’s democratic right to invade its neighbours.
My version of this week’s events…
Macron has refused to hand over the keys of domestic government to Lucie Castets, a kind of leftist Liz Truss who is the compromise figurehead of the ramshackle, four-party left-wing coalition, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP).
Truss, as ephemeral British PM, attempted two years ago to drive the UK economy into a ditch on the right-hand side of the road. Castets wants to drive the French economy into a ditch on the left-hand side. This is a reversal of the usual driving habits of the two countries.
The NFP and its probable allies have 193 seats out of 577 in the assembly elected on July 7th, slightly more than any other bloc but only one third of the votes. There is nothing in the French constitution or French political history which obliges the President to offer the Prime Minister’s job to the “party that came first”.
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Macron is not denying the results of a democratic vote. He is wrestling with an impossible situation, partly of his own making. He is still looking for a new PM 53 days after snap elections produced an Assemblée Nationale split into four factions and 11 groups.
Is Macron trying to find the most comfortable outcome for his remaining 30 months in the Elysée Palace? Of course, he is. He is a politician.
Is he trying to find, as he claims, the best outcome for the “superior interests of the nation?”. Probably. But Macron being Macron, he may have some difficulty in distinguishing between the nation’s destiny and his own.
Has Macron accepted that he was defeated on June 30th and July 7th, even if Marine Le Pen’s Far Right was also defeated?
He has said so several times but perhaps he has not stated it clearly or often enough. He is trying to find an independent Prime Minister who will be capable of finding at least a passive majority in the assembly – in other words a majority willing to tolerate a new government if not actively support it.
To do so, Macron needs to make it clear – or even clearer – that he will stand back from domestic policy and “cohabit” with the new PM.
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None of this amounts to a “coup” or a “trampling of democracy”. If anyone is trying to steal the June/July election it is the Left.
They won narrowly more seats than any other bloc but only as part of a Republican Front against Le Pen which brought them many thousands of votes from the centre. If anyone “won” the election it was this anti-Far Right coalition.
The moment that the results were known, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the unelected spiritual leader of the hard-left La France Insoumise, falsely claimed victory for the Left alone.
He rejected all possibility of compromise with the centre or the centre-right. Only the NFP’s hard left programme of economic and social “rupture” with the past – actually Mélenchon’s programme – was acceptable, he said. There would be no compromise. No surrender.
The programme is not a programme for government, it is a programme for national ruin. It involves not just reversing Macron’s pension reform but returning the pension age to 60; massively increasing spending and taxation; and refusing to be bound by the Eurozone’s deficit and debt rules.
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If the Left had been elected by a majority of voters to enact this programme, they would have had a democratic right to govern. They weren’t. They got 28 percent of the vote in Round One and just over 25 percent in Round Two.
La France Insoumise has announced street protests against Macron’s alleged coup on September 7th. Politics often goes to the street in France but marches and demonstrations (and almost certainly violence) to back bogus claims have nothing to do with democracy.
READ MORE: Calendar: The strikes and protests to take place in France this autumn
Where, I asked several weeks ago, are the grown-ups of the French Left? Why are the social-democrats in the Socialist Party, recently a party of government, not rebelling against their party leader Olivier Faure’s suicidal pact with Mélenchonsim?
Here is the real news of this week: The grown-ups of the Left are finally speaking out.
 At the Socialist Party’s université été (summer university or conference) starting today in Blois, the anti-Mélenchon wing of the party will seek to remove the PS from the NFP alliance.  
One of the leaders of the moderate wing of the Socialists, Hélène Geoffroy says the once powerful Socialists should again become a “party of government” by joining a coalition of the left-centre and right with a centre-left Prime Minister independent of President Macron.
This is close to what Macron is hoping for. He is open to a PM of either centre-left or centre-right who will be willing to work with his own centrist alliance. The Elysée says a decision may be made by the weekend. That is probably optimistic.
Several candidates are being mentioned.
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They include Carole Delga, 53, the Socialist president of the Occitanie region who sees Macron today as part of a delegation of regional leaders.
They also include Didier Migaud, 72, the ex-Socialist deputy and head of the body which fights corruption in French public life and Bernard Cazeneuve, 61, who was President Hollande’s Prime Minister in 2016-7 but left the Socialist Party in protest against its alliance with the hard left La France Insoumise.
On the centre-right, Macron is expected to approach the President of the northern French region, Xavier Bertrand.
Other choices are available.
How many of the 66 Socialist deputies would break ranks with Mélenchon and support such a government if it had a centre-left PM? Maybe half.
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The centre-right says it would not support any coalition but would not necessarily vote against one. Some on the centre right might be tempted all the same to join a government which appeared to be independent of Macron.  
How independent would such a government really be? That will be the question which decides how long it survives without  a successful censure motion in the assembly.
Many of the supporters of any minority coalition government will be from Macron’s centrist alliance. They will enforce Macron’s red lines, including the survival of his pension and labour market reforms and a deficit-cutting 2025 budget.
There will be no need for Macron to interfere. He must, crucially, allow an independent PM to be independent and to enact left-leaning measures (on say the minimum wage) and right-leaning measures (on say migration and security).
Is Emmanuel Macron capable of standing back in this way and contenting himself with defence and foreign policy? That is the real issue, not fantasies about bloodless “coups”.
Do you agree with John’s take on Macron and the ongoing political crisis? Share your own views in the comments section below.

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Comments (5)

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Graykat

2024/08/29 14:05

Refreshing to read John’s sensible, well-balanced article. The sooner the socialists distance themselves from Mélenchon, the better!

Nick

2024/08/29 13:54

A very good summary of a complex set of factions and sub-factions, thank you. I agree with the analysis. Whilst certainly part of the problem, I believe Macron is at least looking at a bigger picture and trying to find a longer term solution, unlike both of the extremes.

Jill

2024/08/29 13:47

Excellent common sense analysis – as usual. Thank you.

SC

2024/08/29 13:40

Totally agree, well written and observed John. Media is stirring up unrest, and protests only show lack of understanding of politics and economics, and offer an excuse for violence for some. If only people would put as much effort into informing themselves as they do in sharing misinformation and stirring up trouble. I hope the PS show sense and break free of this ridiculous alliance.

James

2024/08/29 13:18

Utter liberal nonsense

See Also

Global social media has been beset for several days by a flash-flood of experts on French politics.
President Emmanuel Macron has, we are told, staged a “coup”. He has “stolen” an election. He has refused to recognise the “victory” of the Left.
He has dismissed the legitimate claim to be Prime Minister of an obscure Paris town hall official. He has refused to recognise that the Left has a constitutional “right” to govern because it has more seats than any other bloc in the National Assembly.
Is any of this true? No.
There is something rather touching (and suspicious) about this sudden interest in French politics on American and British X (ex-Twitter). Some of those claiming a “coup” are the usual suspects from the simplistic wing of the Left. Others are people who seem previously to have been interested in defending Russia’s democratic right to invade its neighbours.
My version of this week’s events…
Macron has refused to hand over the keys of domestic government to Lucie Castets, a kind of leftist Liz Truss who is the compromise figurehead of the ramshackle, four-party left-wing coalition, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP).
Truss, as ephemeral British PM, attempted two years ago to drive the UK economy into a ditch on the right-hand side of the road. Castets wants to drive the French economy into a ditch on the left-hand side. This is a reversal of the usual driving habits of the two countries.
The NFP and its probable allies have 193 seats out of 577 in the assembly elected on July 7th, slightly more than any other bloc but only one third of the votes. There is nothing in the French constitution or French political history which obliges the President to offer the Prime Minister’s job to the “party that came first”.
Macron is not denying the results of a democratic vote. He is wrestling with an impossible situation, partly of his own making. He is still looking for a new PM 53 days after snap elections produced an Assemblée Nationale split into four factions and 11 groups.
Is Macron trying to find the most comfortable outcome for his remaining 30 months in the Elysée Palace? Of course, he is. He is a politician.
Is he trying to find, as he claims, the best outcome for the “superior interests of the nation?”. Probably. But Macron being Macron, he may have some difficulty in distinguishing between the nation’s destiny and his own.
Has Macron accepted that he was defeated on June 30th and July 7th, even if Marine Le Pen’s Far Right was also defeated?
He has said so several times but perhaps he has not stated it clearly or often enough. He is trying to find an independent Prime Minister who will be capable of finding at least a passive majority in the assembly – in other words a majority willing to tolerate a new government if not actively support it.
To do so, Macron needs to make it clear – or even clearer – that he will stand back from domestic policy and “cohabit” with the new PM.
None of this amounts to a “coup” or a “trampling of democracy”. If anyone is trying to steal the June/July election it is the Left.
They won narrowly more seats than any other bloc but only as part of a Republican Front against Le Pen which brought them many thousands of votes from the centre. If anyone “won” the election it was this anti-Far Right coalition.
The moment that the results were known, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the unelected spiritual leader of the hard-left La France Insoumise, falsely claimed victory for the Left alone.
He rejected all possibility of compromise with the centre or the centre-right. Only the NFP’s hard left programme of economic and social “rupture” with the past – actually Mélenchon’s programme – was acceptable, he said. There would be no compromise. No surrender.
The programme is not a programme for government, it is a programme for national ruin. It involves not just reversing Macron’s pension reform but returning the pension age to 60; massively increasing spending and taxation; and refusing to be bound by the Eurozone’s deficit and debt rules.
If the Left had been elected by a majority of voters to enact this programme, they would have had a democratic right to govern. They weren’t. They got 28 percent of the vote in Round One and just over 25 percent in Round Two.
La France Insoumise has announced street protests against Macron’s alleged coup on September 7th. Politics often goes to the street in France but marches and demonstrations (and almost certainly violence) to back bogus claims have nothing to do with democracy.
READ MORE: Calendar: The strikes and protests to take place in France this autumn
Where, I asked several weeks ago, are the grown-ups of the French Left? Why are the social-democrats in the Socialist Party, recently a party of government, not rebelling against their party leader Olivier Faure’s suicidal pact with Mélenchonsim?
Here is the real news of this week: The grown-ups of the Left are finally speaking out.
 At the Socialist Party’s université été (summer university or conference) starting today in Blois, the anti-Mélenchon wing of the party will seek to remove the PS from the NFP alliance.  
One of the leaders of the moderate wing of the Socialists, Hélène Geoffroy says the once powerful Socialists should again become a “party of government” by joining a coalition of the left-centre and right with a centre-left Prime Minister independent of President Macron.
This is close to what Macron is hoping for. He is open to a PM of either centre-left or centre-right who will be willing to work with his own centrist alliance. The Elysée says a decision may be made by the weekend. That is probably optimistic.
Several candidates are being mentioned.
They include Carole Delga, 53, the Socialist president of the Occitanie region who sees Macron today as part of a delegation of regional leaders.
They also include Didier Migaud, 72, the ex-Socialist deputy and head of the body which fights corruption in French public life and Bernard Cazeneuve, 61, who was President Hollande’s Prime Minister in 2016-7 but left the Socialist Party in protest against its alliance with the hard left La France Insoumise.
On the centre-right, Macron is expected to approach the President of the northern French region, Xavier Bertrand.
Other choices are available.
How many of the 66 Socialist deputies would break ranks with Mélenchon and support such a government if it had a centre-left PM? Maybe half.
The centre-right says it would not support any coalition but would not necessarily vote against one. Some on the centre right might be tempted all the same to join a government which appeared to be independent of Macron.  
How independent would such a government really be? That will be the question which decides how long it survives without  a successful censure motion in the assembly.
Many of the supporters of any minority coalition government will be from Macron’s centrist alliance. They will enforce Macron’s red lines, including the survival of his pension and labour market reforms and a deficit-cutting 2025 budget.
There will be no need for Macron to interfere. He must, crucially, allow an independent PM to be independent and to enact left-leaning measures (on say the minimum wage) and right-leaning measures (on say migration and security).
Is Emmanuel Macron capable of standing back in this way and contenting himself with defence and foreign policy? That is the real issue, not fantasies about bloodless “coups”.
Do you agree with John’s take on Macron and the ongoing political crisis? Share your own views in the comments section below.